Transforming Our Civilization
This is a reflective piece I wrote for my children. I want them to both understand the magnitude of our challenges but also know that there is a positive way forward that we can choose and that life, no matter what, will go on.
Preparing
for the End of The World (Again)
Your Future in a Climate Changed
World
The
Fall of Constantinople, 1453 (1)
Preface
The Miracle Planet is
a documentary I watched together many times with my kids [46]. It shows how life
has suffered disaster upon disaster, and yet every time life has bounced back
faster, stronger, larger, faster, smarter and more adaptable then before. This was
an inspiration for me because it helped me see that life truly is a miracle and
every day I give thanks for partaking in this miracle called life on Earth.
Yet, today, as in so many times in the past, it seems that we are on the brink
of unimaginable catastrophe. My message here is not to focus on the catastrophe
part of the story but rather the miracle part in which life and joy and wondour
and beauty unfold ever more vibrant after the dark days of this miracle planet
we live on.
Introduction
Life on Earth and
humans in particular has suffered death on a massive scale many times over.
These mass extinction events, or, in the case of humans, cultural extinction
events, come with a regularity that is astounding. I say astounding because we prefer to think of
them as rare - so as to avoid the ugly reality that life on Earth has cataclysm
as a normal part of its story. Given that we are now living through, and are
the cause of, the 6th mass extinction I find it both interesting for
its own sake and useful to accept the reality that we moving headlong into
another unpleasant extinction/collapse event. More important for you is the
fact if you can accept that it is coming you can prepare for it. First the bad
news: I accept that any changes we are
making will in all probability not going to stop the collapse of our industrial
civilization as we know it [51] Now for the good news: all life, and humanity
in particular, has a knack for surviving disaster by evolving to adapt to new
realities. I am confident that, after the initial collapse of our unsustainable
civilization, a new and invigorated humanity will not only survive but continue
to evolve into a ‘homo sapiens’ worthy of that name. Most of the following is simply to ‘into the
mood’ as my experience with this issue is that coming to the realization that
while there are traumatic changes ahead there is simultaneously the opportunity
to help forge a better world for all life on Earth by learning from our
mistakes. Believe it or not these writings are meant to
be good news, in this way: as these events unfold before your eyes you can
still live a rich and full with a new and help create a better civilization out
of our current mess.
Past: Extinction/Collapse Events
To put our current
collapse in perspective here are a few past extinction/collapse events. The
message: life goes on…
717 million years
ago: Snowball Earth
The Sturtian
glaciation, as this event is
known, was no ordinary Ice Age but one so extreme that it caused the Earth to
become a giant snowball for at least five million years. Life, barely, survived deep in
the rocks and along the ocean/land interface. Some scientists think this event spurred
the evolution of multi-cellular life. [2]
440 million years
ago: The Permian Mass Extinction
The end-Permian mass extinction, which took
place 251.9 million years ago, killed off more than 96 percent of the planet's
marine species and 70 percent of its terrestrial life—a global annihilation.
After this dinosaurs and mammals evolved. [3]
65 million years
ago: An Asteroid Wipes Out the Dinosaurs
Almost all the large vertebrates on Earth, on land, at sea,
and in the air (all dinosaurs) suddenly became extinct about 65 Ma, at the end
of the Cretaceous Period. At the same time, most plankton and many tropical
invertebrates, especially reef-dwellers, became extinct. Just two million years after the extinction, most of the
species that had survived the mass extinction were more common than ever. Not
only that, several new species had evolved, creating an “explosion” of diversity
after the extinction. It is probable that mammals [ie. you!] would
never have become the dominant large life forms without this event. [4]
70,000 years ago a
volcanic eruption almost made humans extinct
Around 70,000 B.C., a volcano called Toba, on Sumatra, in
Indonesia went off, blowing roughly 650 miles of vaporized rock into the air. The world
was having an ice age and all that dust hanging in the atmosphere caused the
average temperature dropped 20-plus degrees in some spots. The great grassy
plains of Africa may have shrunk way back, keeping the small bands of humans
small and hungry for hundreds, if not thousands of more years. So we almost
vanished: falling to a world-wide population of roughly a thousand reproductive
adults. However, this is also around the time we ‘modern’ humans spread
around the world.[5]
410 AD: The Fall
of Rome
The
fall of Rome simply came because the barbarians took advantage of difficulties
already existing in Rome - problems that included a decaying city (both
physically and morally), little to no tax revenue, overpopulation, poor
leadership, and, most importantly, inadequate defense. To some the fall was
inevitable. On
the last day of the empire, a barbarian member of the Germanic tribe Siri and
former commander in the Roman army entered the city unopposed. The one-time military and
financial power of the Mediterranean was unable to resist. The good news is that is
ended [mostly] slavery in Europe. [7]
900: Collapse of
the Mayan Civilization
A
study by a cluster of climate researchers at the University of Cambridge and
geologists at the University of Florida concluded that a massive drought, with
a decrease in annual precipitation of between 41-54%, occurred at the end
of the classical period (ca. the 9th century CE), devastating crops and
making the land of the Mayans all but uninhabitable. However, social and
political instabilities were key factors in their inability to adapt to the new
reality according to Dr. Anderson as the severe drought doesn't account for the
problems in linking the drought to a prolonged 200-year decline - a period
that's far too long for just 1 thing to be the cause. Most likely, it was
a number of factors that caused the decline, with the environment being
only 1 of them. However,
the Mayans as a people survive in their millions to this day. [6]
1258: The Mongols
Destroy Baghdad and End the Golden Age of Islam
It
took just thirteen days for the Ilkhanate Mongols and their allies to bring the
Golden Age of Islam crashing down. Eye-witnesses reported that the mighty
Tigris River ran black with ink from the precious books and documents destroyed
along with the Grand Library of Baghdad, or Bayt al Hikmah. Nobody knows for sure how many
citizens of the Abbasid Empire died; estimates
range from 200,000 up to 1,000,000. In two short weeks, the seat of
learning and culture for the entire Muslim world was conquered and ruined. However, from the ashes of this
destruction would rise the eventual Islamisation of the entire Mongol Empire,
outside of China and Mongolia. [8]
1347: The Black Death Comes to Europe
The
Black Death struck Europe in 1347, killing up to 50% of the European population
in six violent years. It wasn’t a one-off epidemic: it signalled the start of
the second plague pandemic in Europe that lasted for
hundreds of years and only slowly disappeared from the continent after the Great
Plague of London in 1665. It is probable that a reborn Renaissance Europe would
never have happened as it would have been trapped in a Medieval social model
without the plague. [9]
The
Beginning of the End for the Natives of the Americas as Columbus runs aground
off Haiti (13)
1492: Christopher
Columbus brings Mass Death via Disease to the Americas
It was not mainly war, but rather disease,
that resulted in the annihilation of the natives of the Americas: the death
rate from diseases like smallpox was staggeringly high—about 87 percent of the
Native population died in a short period. And yet the aboriginal populations of
the Americas still exist and are making a slow and painful comeback. [10]
1650: The End of
Easter Island Civilization
The careless use of resources was the primary contributor to Easter
Island's collapse. The Rapanui were so intent on their projects that they
underestimated the extent of their resources. Trees were cleared to make
pathways for moai [giant stone heads] transport, which required a number of
logs for rolling. Furthermore, the Rapanui cultivated wide expanses of land for
harvesting crops and felled even more trees to build deep-sea fishing canoes.
What was once an untouched, verdant paradise became a treeless wasteland.
Without the protection of sturdy trees and their roots, rain washed away
topsoil. The land began to erode. Crops couldn't grow in these conditions. And
now, there were even more Rapanui to sustain: Population peaked at 10,000.
There was no hope for the Rapanui -- they didn't even have wood to build canoes
to escape the island. The Rapanui then turned against each other. The ariki mau, head chief, had long governed the island, but now the Rapanui split
into factions that fought for proprietary rights to still-fertile land. These
factions were led by matato'a --
warrior leaders. Archaeological evidence shows that the spears and daggers,
or mata'a, on the island
were crafted during this dark hour. Others, defeated, crept into caves, where
they spent the rest of their days. [44]
1919: The Smallpox
Epidemic kills up to 100 million Worldwide
It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of
the world’s population became infected with this virus, and the number of deaths
was estimated to be up to 100 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in
the United States. The pandemic was so severe that from 1917 to 1918, life
expectancy in the United States fell by about 12 years. This disaster spurred
on research that led to the discovery of antibiotics, the saviour of millions. [11]
So what does all this have to do with you and me?
I think the take away from the above events is twofold: first
- disaster is a normal part of life on Earth [yuk.], second – life somehow
survives these disaster and is often more successful afterwards because life
that survives had to be smarter or stronger or faster and was able to adapt
more quickly to sudden changes [yeah!] Many
people, including me, see that we heading towards a similar scale of disaster: only this time not only is it a disaster of
our own making, but it is one that we can see coming before it happens which
should, theoretically, make it preventable, However, even with all the knowledge
that we have to overcome the inertia of our current dominant
social-political-industrial-capitalist system [this includes China, which is
only communist in name] seems currently to be impossible. Even if we tried to
change direction [which we aren’t] significant change within a short period is
physically an impossibility. And that short period is very short: according to IPCC climate scientists’ latest report
(14) if we do not reduce our net carbon emissions to zero by 2055 we will
increase the global average temperature by at least 2°C (other scientist
believe this is an understated value and that we currently heading for a +5°C
hotter world, the so called ‘Hothouse Earth’, 15) Given that since the Paris
Accord was signed by most nations in 2015 global GHG emissions have increased,
even this significant, but not fatal, increase, looks like it is out of reach
and the “Hothouse Earth” scenario seems to be more likely every day. Below are three possible futures: which will
we choose?
Business as Usual Scenario
You can that this scenario, after examining the graphs below,
is clearly unsustainable, even if most people cannot admit to it.
World Scientists 2nd Warning to
Humanity [39]
Transition
Scenario: A new Industrial
Capitalism Arises from Environmental Degradation and Climate Change Pressures
“Capitalism as we know it is over. So suggests a new report
commissioned by a group of scientists appointed by the UN
secretary general. The main reason? We’re
transitioning rapidly to a radically different global economy, due to our
increasingly unsustainable exploitation of the planet’s environmental resources
and the shift to less efficient energy sources. Climate change and
species extinctions are accelerating even as societies are experiencing rising
inequality, unemployment, slow economic growth, rising debt levels, and
impotent governments. Contrary to the way policymakers usually think about
these problems these are not really separate crises at all. These crises are
part of the same fundamental transition. The new era is characterised by
inefficient fossil fuel production and escalating costs of climate change.
Conventional capitalist economic thinking can no longer explain, predict or
solve the workings of the global economy in this new age. “Economic activity is
driven by meaning – maintaining equal possibilities for the good life while
lowering emissions dramatically – rather than profit, and the meaning is
politically, collectively constructed. Well, I think this is the best
conceivable case in terms of modern state and market institutions. It can’t
happen without considerable reframing of economic-political thinking”[12]
Collapse Scenario: We
do not Change in Time, Failed States become the new Normal and Millions Die
from Hunger and Disease
“Virtually every past
civilization has eventually undergone collapse, a loss of
socio-political-economic complexity usually accompanied by a dramatic decline
in population size. Some, such as those of Egypt and China, have recovered from
collapses at various stages; others, such as that of Easter Island or the
Classic Maya, were apparently permanent. All those previous collapses were
local or regional; elsewhere, other societies and civilizations persisted
unaffected. Sometimes, as in the Tigris and Euphrates valleys, new
civilizations rose in succession. In many, if not most, cases, overexploitation
of the environment was one proximate or an ultimate cause. But today, for the
first time, humanity's global civilization—the
worldwide, increasingly interconnected, highly technological society in which
we all are to one degree or another, embedded—is threatened with collapse by an
array of environmental problems. Humankind finds itself engaged in what Prince
Charles described as ‘an act of suicide on a grand scale’, facing what the UK's
Chief Scientific Advisor John Beddington called a ‘perfect storm’ of
environmental problems. The most serious of these problems show signs of
rapidly escalating severity, especially climate disruption. But other elements
could potentially also contribute to a collapse: an accelerating extinction of
animal and plant populations and species, which could lead to a loss of
ecosystem services essential for human survival; land degradation and land-use
change; a pole-to-pole spread of toxic compounds; ocean acidification and
eutrophication (dead zones); worsening of some aspects of the epidemiological
environment (factors that make human populations susceptible to infectious diseases);
depletion of increasingly scarce resources, including especially groundwater,
which is being overexploited in many key agricultural areas; and resource wars.
These are not separate problems; rather they interact in two gigantic complex
adaptive systems: the biosphere system and the human socio-economic system. The
negative manifestations of these interactions are often referred to as ‘the
human predicament’, and determining how to prevent it from generating a global
collapse is perhaps the foremost
challenge confronting humanity. The human predicament is driven by
overpopulation, overconsumption of natural resources and the use of
unnecessarily environmentally damaging technologies and
socio-economic-political arrangements to service Homo sapiens’ aggregate
consumption.” [50]
Easter Island, where over 90% of the population
died of famine, war and disease [38]
"There have been seven disasters
since humans came on the earth, very similar to the one that's just about to
happen. I think these events keep separating the wheat from the chaff. Eventually
we'll have a human on the planet that really does understand it and can live
with it properly. That's the source of my optimism."
[James Lovelock, 49]
Part II:
Current News
You may now think: “That was the past or what could be; what
about right now? What is happening at this moment that can convince me that it
is as bad as you say? What follows are
just a random environmentally related news reports that makes it clear that we
face many challenges, all of our own making. This is in no way a complete
snapshot of the state of the stresses we face, but just a wake-up call to the
fact that what were once considered future problems are happening now. I chose not to focus on climate
change news because it should be considered the result of all our other
destructive activities and it can only be addressed when the other
self-destructive behaviours of our current industrial civilization are changed.
We are producing half the sperm our
grandfathers did; we are half as fertile. The Hebrew University/Mount Sinai paper was a
meta-analysis by a team of epidemiologists, clinicians, and researchers that
culled data from 185 studies, which examined semen from almost 43,000 men. It
showed that the human race is apparently on a trend line toward becoming unable
to reproduce itself. Sperm counts went from 99 million sperm per milliliter of
semen in 1973 to 47 million per milliliter in 2011, and the decline has been
accelerating. But
some chemicals, including phthalates and BPA, can change the way genes are
expressed without altering the underlying genetic code, and that change is inheritable. Your father
passes along his low sperm count to you, and your sperm count goes even lower
after you're exposed to endocrine disruptors: that is why there's been no
leveling off even after 40 years of declining sperm counts—the baseline keeps
dropping. [29]
Milder and shorter winters continue to decimate moose
populations in New England The killer
has been the winter tick, parasites that are attaching themselves to moose —
sometimes in the tens of thousands — and sucking the lifeblood out of them,
killing calves that can’t sustain the blood loss, and making it harder for cows
to bear calves. In the last decade, moose populations in Vermont and New
Hampshire have plummeted, and this autumn, as a consequence, moose hunting
permits in both states will be at historic lows. As of now, said one moose
biologist, the future looks grim. “This whole thing is being driven by climate
and our climate is changing and not in a way that’s conducive to moose,” said
Kristine Rines, lead moose biologist with the N.H. Fish and Game Department.
“This is a whole new ball game. If we have drought in the fall consistently, moose
might be able to stabilize for a while at this level, but if temperatures
continue to rise and winters get shorter, we will be host to a large number of
parasites and diseases that moose have simply not evolved with.” [16]
‘Hyperalarming’ study shows massive insect loss Insects
around the world are in a crisis, according to a small but growing number of
long-term studies showing dramatic declines in invertebrate populations.
A new
report suggests that the problem is more widespread than
scientists realized. Huge numbers of bugs have been lost in a pristine national
forest in Puerto Rico, the study found, and the forest’s insect-eating animals
have gone missing, too. In 2014, an international team of biologists estimated
that, in the past 35 years, the abundance of invertebrates such as beetles and
bees had decreased by 45 percent. In places where long-term insect data
are available, mainly in Europe, insect numbers are plummeting. A study last
year showed a 76 percent decrease in flying insects in the past few
decades in German nature preserves. [30]
Plastic
waste disintegrates into nanoparticles that can enter brain cells to effect
behaviour Calculations have shown that ten
per cent of all plastic produced globally ends up in the sea. Is there a risk that this plastic waste
disintegrates to the extent that nanoplastics are released? "We have been able to show that the
mechanical effect on the plastic causes the disintegration of plastic down to
nano-sized plastic fragments," says Tommy Cedervall, chemistry researcher
at Lund University.The study relates to the larger issue of what happens to
plastic in the environment and how plastic can affect animals and humans.
Plastic nano-sized particles are a few millionths of a millimetre, i.e.
extremely small particles, so small that they have been shown to reach far into
living organisms' bodies. Last year, in an earlier study from Lund University,
researchers showed that nano-sized plastic particles can enter the brains of
fish and that this causes brain damage which probably disturbs fish behaviour. [31]
In Florida, the
uncontrolled growth of an alga known as "red tide" has the state in
emergency The red tide occurs naturally, but scientists
believe that human action worsens the problem. Year-round, K. brevis can be
found in concentrations of 1,000 cells per litre of water. According to Mr
Bartleson, who navigates every day around Sanibel beaches to monitor the K.
brevis, a concentration of one million K. brevis cells per litre of water
"kills everything". In recent measurements, he has found up to 50
million K. brevis cells per litre of water. "We have never seen numbers
likes this before," he says. "When the concentration of red tide is
high it kills everything," says Dr Rick Bartleson, research scientist at
The Sanibel Captiva Conservation Foundation Marine Laboratory (SCCF). This
exaggerated growth of algae has been linked to water contaminated with
fertilisers used in agriculture, which reached the sea through several canals
that pump residues on the west coast of Florida. [32]
Plastics release hormones that lead to anxiety Almost all commercially available plastic products we
sampled—independent of the type of resin, product, or retail source—leached
chemicals having reliably detectable EA, including those advertised as BPA
free. In some cases, BPA-free products released chemicals having more EA than
did BPA-containing products. [37] This matters because
“It is believed that discrepancies regarding the
nature of estrogens’ effects on anxiety are attributable to the differential
effects of specific estrogen receptor (ER) subtypes. The impact of estrogens on
the expression of anxiety is likely the result of their combined effects on all
of these neurobiological systems.”[37]
Rising Seas Flooding Miami Regularly Beyond
the damage to homes, roads, or other infrastructure, the flooding also
threatens drinking water and plant life. Ultimately, of course, it means large
parts of the city could become permanently uninhabitable. Pedraza lives in
Shorecrest, a northern Miami neighborhood that faces flooding so regularly it
happens even when it hasn’t rained. All it takes to fill the streets to
knee-high depth on those days is a full moon. There are 3 reasons why flooding
is so bad in Miami. The first is sea-level rise. Because of ocean currents and
Miami's location, sea levels are rising in and around the city and Miami Beach
faster than in most of the world. The second problem facing South Florida is a
vexing geological one. “Our underlying geology is like Swiss cheese,” said Obeysekera.
The third whammy,
the effect of future storms, is still an unknown. The consequences of a warmer
world on hurricane season are uncertain, but many scientists agree that we can
expect storms to be more intense, which could mean higher storm surges and more
rainfall. [33]
One of the Largest
Aquifers in the World Is Disappearing Every summer the US Central Plains go dry, leading farmers to tap into
groundwater to irrigate sorghum, soy, cotton, wheat, and corn, and maintain
large herds of cattle and hogs. As the heat rises, anxious
irrigators gather to discuss whether
and how they should adopt more stringent conservation
measures. They know that if they do not
conserve, the Ogallala Aquifer, the source of their prosperity, will go dry.
The Ogallala, also known as the High Plains Aquifer, is one of the largest
underground freshwater sources in the world. It underlies an estimated 174,000
square miles of the Central Plains and holds
as much water as Lake Huron. It
irrigates portions of eight states, from Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska in
the North to Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas in the South.
But the current drought plaguing the region is unusually strong and persistent,
driving farmers to rely more on the aquifer and sharpening the debate over its
future. As more pumps were drilled into the
aquifer to capture its flow, some started to come up dry, which led to more
drilling and pumping. Between the late 19th century and 2005, the US Geological
Survey estimates irrigation depleted the aquifer by 253 million acre-feet — about
nine percent of its total volume. And the pace is accelerating. Analyzing
federal data, the Denver
Post found that the aquifer shrank twice as fast from 2011 through 2017 as it had over the previous
60 years. [34]
Scientists warned this weedkiller would destroy crops. EPA approved it
anyway. Joyce leans against the
greenhouse he’s building, hands in the pockets of his overalls, peering at the
field where he started nearly 800 tomato plants in the spring. It was early
August when the telltale signs of trouble emerged. The plants’ broad, flat
leaves shriveled and curled, their branches twisted and buckled. Then blossom
rot set in. Joyce knew they couldn’t be saved. He climbed onto his tractor and
mowed down his bestselling crop — for the third year in a row. The plague that
struck Joyce’s farm in Malden, Missouri, was not a natural disaster, but a
man-made weedkiller called dicamba. The
EPA ignored scientists’ warnings and extensive research that showed dicamba
would evaporate into the air and ruin crops miles away, according to
documents obtained through public records requests and lawsuits. Instead,
the EPA’s approval was based on studies by the companies that manufacture
dicamba, which independent scientists say were seriously flawed. One scientist
called the studies “shockingly insufficient.” The agrochemical giant Monsanto
Co. orchestrated the massive deployment of dicamba on tens of millions of acres
of crops in the Midwest and mid-South when it lobbied the EPA to allow the
chemical to be used on its genetically modified seeds for cotton and soybeans.
The seeds — which the company engineered so that farmers could use dicamba to
kill invasive weeds without hurting their crops — were worth $3 billion
last year. [35]
Lyme disease is thriving thanks to climate change Rising temperatures are creating new
habitats for ticks. Climate
change already has amplified the range of invasive insects that devour
crops, destroy homes, and spread disease. “Tick-borne diseases are an
important public health concern and the incidence of these infections is
increasing in the United States and worldwide. “Lyme disease is a classic
example of the link between environmental factors and the occurrence and spread
of disease.” [36]
In spite of all this gloomy news I remain convinced that
human ingenuity and our ability to cooperate when we must, will, after
significant pain and suffering (read – many people will unnecessarily die of
starvation and disease), allow life to recover, just as it did after the Black Death. Yes,
life as we know it is over, but life, and human life in particular, is not.
Think of it as just another lesson learned. After the Black Death we eventually
learned about the connection between disease and cleanliness, now we may learn
that we so totally part of our environment that nothing we do can be considered
as separate – every one of our actions impacts not only the people around us,
not only other species of plants and animals around us, but even the chemistry
and geology of the planet itself. Furthermore there is also lots of good news
as Scientists and Engineers create new technologies and approaches to
resource/energy use that will, when used on a mass scale, allow us to live in a
way that does not damage the environment as much as we do now.[45] This will be
a hard lesson to learn, but we can all learn. Not only that, given that the
future is yet to happen, there is still much that you can do in your life to
prepare for this future. No, I am not saying prevention of wrenching societal
change is possible, but I am saying that you can increase your chances of
survival - even living with some joy and satisfaction – if you start preparing
for the changes ahead. So, next are my thoughts on ways that you, the young,
can prepare for life in a Climate Change world. This is not a recipe, because
the details of the new world are yet to be determined, but these ideas will, I
hope, give you food for thought and spur you into action.
The Only Thing
Stronger than Fear is Hope, if it followed through with Intelligent
Action
Part III: Your Preparations
Predicting the details and timing for any future event is a
fool’s errand, however, the general direction for the future can be clearly
seen, if you want to look. These are
only a few of the changes coming your way:
-the wrenching change in technology {AI, robots, block-chain,
genetic engineering, etc.17]
- use of internet connectivity and data to control whole
populations [Chinese social credit score,18]
- population pressures on food supplies [most world fisheries
in decline, world’s largest aquifers to be dry within 20 years,19]
- accelerated species extinction rates [70% decline in French
songbirds, 70% decline in European insect population,20]
- 50% in North American sperm count since WWII [21]
- abrupt climate change towards a “Hothouse Earth” [ice free
Arctic ocean, melting permafrost, weak jet streams, slowing down of world ocean
conveyer – especially the gulf stream, continued failure to reduce GHG
emissions,22]
-cyber attacks that can bring down the grid, hospitals or
entire cities are now everyday event [43]
You had better be ready for unexpected ‘surprises’. Now, to be sure, some of the surprises will be
good news. Especially in the area of renewable energy and new technologies
positive breakthroughs are happening almost every day. [23] So Although I
refuse to predict the details of the social-political-environmental shifts the
near future will bring there are some simple, common sense choices you can make
to reduce the risk that you will be among the first climate refugees. Think of
this as accelerated change in a complex system that is going to go through some
nasty bumps on the highway of life, these ideas are just your seatbelt and air
bag to get you through the rough moments, but, always remember, there is light
at the end of the tunnel!
Minimum
Prep
Your Attitude & Social Network
-stay positive, but realistic, no matter how bad things get
- find and maintain strong relationships with like-minded
people but stay informed about differing points of view
- don’t judge others, it doesn’t help you in any way
-at all cost avoid fatalism; “Indeed fatalism is a mind-set
that strengthens the trends that generate it by fostering compliance to those
very trends. The compliance that fatalism effects is invisible to the
fatalistic thinker, who does not regard him or herself as a conformist, but
simply as a realist.69 But the conceptual and pragmatic fortification of the socioeconomic
establishment by fatalistic reasoning is incontestable, arising as an effect
cognate to what is called “positive feedback” in cybernetics,70 “looping
action” in philosophy,71 and “self-fulfilling prophesy” in sociology.” [51]
Transport & Where you live
-stay away from living in/on mega-cities, coastlines,
hurricane/tornado/flood-plain/desert zones [24]
-live as close to work as possible
-of you must drive have/share an electric car
-only fly if you absolutely must
Your Job/Skills
-educate yourself in a career that is ‘real’; meaning not
pure marketing and speculation, eg. Selling perfume or stocks [25] and is not
prone to replacement by AI or robots
-love your work
Your Home’s Energy and Food
-your home/apartment & transport should be net zero
carbon [26]
-if you must have a car it must be electric
-eat as close be vegetarian as is healthy for you, grow as
much of your own food as is reasonable
- no food waste or garbage and as close to zero use of
plastic as possible
-have backup up power for the inevitable loss of power along
with an independent heat source [27]
- have at least 1 month supply of food & water; include
some neighbours in the amount you calculate [28]
‘Maximum’ Prep
Your Attitude & Social Network
-build a team that
live close together and can support each other in every way
-set time aside each
day for reflection and giving thanks for all the good things in your life
-have your neighbours
as part of your team and be ready so share with them
-communicate with those
who are not being realistic or are scared about the unfolding changes
-get married, have
kids and train them to help find solutions to this crisis
Transport & Where you live
-stay away from any large cities [but don’t be totally
isolated either]
-stop flying
-LOVE where you live
Your Job/Skills
-on your closest circle of family/friends have people trained
in medicine, mechanical repair, building, farming
-have the skills & resources to grow your own food &
heat/repair your own house
Your Home’s Energy and Food
-have 1 year’s supply of food/energy/access to water
-set up your living space to be able to function without
external energy/water for the long term if needed
As you can see I have
no magic recipe for you to prepare. Having practical mechanical and medical
skills will of course be essential but the essence of preparation, aside from
the basics mentioned above, will be to recognize quickly changes in society and
respond before most people do. So noticing trends is going to be your most
essential skill - especially noticing uncomfortable realities that will shift
your life in a unexpected directions. Just be ready and respond intelligently
and life can continue to be fully of joy, for even on a rainy day there is a
rainbow.
If you act like an animal
Nature will treat you like an animal
Instead be human:
look ahead, be proactive, act before you are forced to.
And no, what is happening is NOT personal.
What’s
next?
After the initial
shock of finding out that our form of civilization no longer functions what’s
next? Well, nothing that hasn’t happened before: a search for and the
formulation of a new form of a social-political-economic model that will work
for the long haul. “Right now we appear to be as “culture trapped” by and
within’ Modernity’ as a form of civilization as the Roman Catholic [RC] Church
was trapped within its pre-Modern worldview in 1450. As was the RC Church then, we are both
disinclined and unable to take a corporately self-critical meta-reflexive
perspective on Modernity as a form of civilization and assess its adequacy
against the deep changes occurring within and among us. It is the case that as of today we neither
imagine nor entertain the notion, much less explore it, that our long litany of
troubles are signs and symptoms of civilizational overshoot. The thought that our form of civilization may
be the root of our crises is simply not on our agendas, but it should be. If we
are already past “Peak Modernity” and well into a civilizational-scale
overshoot, then we are pursuing a wholly inappropriate aspiration. Rather than seeking to make Modernity
sustainable, our core work in the 21st Century is to learn to
out-grow our Modern selves and cultures and let them go as we learn the new
work of nurturing the next form of civilization into robust being.” [40] There
are several such nascent models out there, for example permaculture communities
[41], described here: An Eco village is a type of intentional community where individuals and
families come together to try and find ways to live more sustainably. People
who have chosen to live in Eco villages, often believe that the multiple crises
that we collectively face as a species are directly related to the
civilizational paradigm that is defined by industrial production, alienated
individuals whose sole purpose in life is to consume, and an economic system
whose dependence on unlimited growth is destroying the earth. Eco villages seek
to challenge this paradigm by creating new ways of living within the ecological
limitations of place. Concretely, Eco villages are usually small groups of
anywhere between 30 and 300 people whose goal is to find ways to live more
economically, socially and ecologically sustainable lives. As Buckminster
Fuller once said, “in order to change an existing paradigm you do not struggle
to try and change the problematic model. You create a new model and make the
old one obsolete.” [42]
As a counterpoint to all this
wondourful dream is the following statement by one of my hero’s, James
Lovelock, who came up with the Gaia hypothesis [48] and is famous for being an
environmental contrarian:
Humanity
is in a period exactly like 1938-9, he explains, when "we all knew
something terrible was going to happen, but didn't know what to do about
it". But once the second world war was under way, "everyone got
excited, they loved the things they could do, it was one long holiday ... so
when I think of the impending crisis now, I think in those terms. A sense of
purpose - that's what people want." [49]
In conclusion, we are about to
experience what Charles Dickens called “It was the best of times, it was the
worst of times”. [he described the struggles of people around the time of the French
Revolution] Then, as now, the old world was dying and a new one was being born.
Clearly, it was a difficult birth. Just as asking anybody then if they thought
things were getting better they would have thought you mad, for clearly, when
immersed in the turmoil of the moment, things were getting worse. However, in
hindsight and having a long term view, life did improve for most people [who
survived]. I consider our challenges today similar in kind, if not in degree.
Clearly, what we are about to experience will be more gut wrenching than the
French Revolution, but, just as despair then was not helpful so will despair
today only doom you: your only sensible option is realistic optimism. I wish
you all well on your journey into a future that is still unfolding.
“To me, all this knowledge about abrupt climate change
doesn’t lead me to be fearful, it leads me to feel responsible. It leads me to
feel that we need to be more informed.”
- quote by Scott Wing, Geologist studying the PETM
[47]
References
1.Picture: The Fall of Constantinople https://seanmunger.com/2015/05/29/byzantium-didnt-fall-in-a-day-some-thoughts-on-the-end-of-empires/
3. Permian Mass Extinction https://phys.org/news/2018-09-end-permian-extinction-earth-species-instantaneous.html
5. near human extinction https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c
6. Rome and the Classic Maya: Comparing the Slow Collapse of Civilizations. By Rebecca Storey, Glenn R Storey
https://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewgabriele/2018/08/10/drought-mayan-civilization-we-already-knew-that/#574437ef69ae
9. The Plague https://www.iflscience.com/environment/plague-outbreaks-ravaged-europe-centuries-were-driven-climate-changes-asia/
10. Christopher Columbus https://phys.org/news/2016-01-aftermath-native-american-depopulation-impacted.html
12. Industrial Capitalism https://www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/capitalism-un-scientists-preparing-end-fossil-fuels-warning-demise-a8523856.html https://irena.org/publications/2019/Jan/A-New-World-The-Geopolitics-of-the-Energy-Transformation?utm_source=All+IRENA+contacts+except+GSO%2FCoalition&utm_campaign=88dad767be-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_01_11_10_14_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_29b5801035-88dad767be-36979277
13. Picture Columbus run aground https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/12/111205-native-americans-europeans-population-dna-genetics-science/
18. https://www.businessinsider.com/china-social-credit-system-punishments-and-rewards-explained-2018-4
23. https://www.xyleco.com/ https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/vbngmd/decentralized-microgridding-can-provide-90-of-a-neighborhoods-energy-needs-study-finds
24. https://collections.unu.edu/eserv/UNU:2385/nLib9280809873.pdf https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/24/climate-change-where-to-move-us-avoid-floods-hurricanes
28. https://www.familysurvivalplanning.com/support-files/the_complete_book_of_prepping_lists.pdf https://www.familysurvivalplanning.com/food-storage-for-beginners.html
35. https://thefern.org/2018/11/scientists-warned-this-weedkiller-would-destroy-crops-epa-approved-it-anyway/
39. http://scientistswarning.forestry.oregonstate.edu/sites/sw/files/Ripple_et_al.%20_7-31-17_scientists_warning.pdf
40. private letter
from Ruben
(Butch) Nelson
45. good news
on renewable energy
47. https://nationalpost.com/news/world/how-an-ancient-global-warming-catastrophe-holds-vital-clues-about-the-earths-future PETM: Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum
Appendix: Questioning our Civilization
When we begin to see that our ‘problems’ are but symptoms we can then
address the root causes of our failed social-economic-political
experiment called “self-centered-democratic-capitalism”. In effect our current
self-destructive behaviours can be looked upon as a form of insanity. Our
insanity is believing in many illusions that are clearly false [eg. my
individual choices and behaviours have no impact on anybody else]. Furthermore
we are being suicidal as we KNOW that we are on path that is destroying the
foundations of all life and yet we continue as if there is nothing we can do
about and that it will not happen: this ‘double-think’ is a clear sign that we
have lost our connection to reality – the reality that we but one species of
millions on a planet where everything is connected to everything and everything
you and I do matters to all life on Earth. Additionally, our human centered perspective
is a sign of illness: we act as if we humans are all that matter and other
species are optional – try telling that to your guts as the billions of
bacteria digest your food for you!
From Beyond the Climate Crisis: A
Critique of Climate Change Discourse [51]
Yet the deepening realization of the threat of climate change,
virtually in the wake of stratospheric ozone depletion, also suggests that
dealing with global problems treaty-by-treaty is no solution to the planet’s
predicament. Just as the risks of unanticipated ozone depletion have been
followed by the dangers of a long underappreciated climate crisis, so it would
be naïve not to anticipate another (perhaps even entirely unforeseeable)
catastrophe arising after the (hoped-for) resolution of the above two.
Furthermore, if greenhouse gases were restricted successfully by means of
technological shifts and innovations, the root cause of the ecological crisis
as a whole would remain unaddressed. The destructive patterns of production,
trade, extraction, land-use, waste proliferation, and consumption, coupled with
population growth, would go unchallenged, continuing to run down the integrity,
beauty, and biological richness of the Earth. Industrial-consumer civilization
has entrenched a form of life that admits virtually no limits to its
expansiveness within, and perceived entitlement to, the entire planet. But
questioning this civilization is by and large sidestepped in climate-change discourse, with its
single-minded quest for a global-warming techno-fix. Instead of confronting the
forms of social organization that are causing the climate crisis—among numerous
other catastrophes—climate-change literature often focuses on how global
warming is endangering the culprit, and agonizes over what technological means can
save it from impending tipping points. While the dangers of climate
change are real, I argue that there are even greater dangers in representing it
as the most urgent problem we face. Framing climate change in such a manner
deserves to be challenged for two reasons: it encourages the restriction of
proposed solutions to the technical realm, by powerfully insinuating that the
needed approaches are those that directly address the problem; and it detracts
attention from the planet’s ecological predicament as a whole, by virtue of
claiming the limelight for the one issue that trumps all others. Industrial-consumer
civilization has entrenched a form of life that admits virtually no limits to
its expansiveness within, and perceived entitlement to, the entire planet. But
questioning this civilization is by and large sidestepped in climate-change
discourse, with its single-minded quest for a global-warming techno-fix.
Instead of confronting the forms of social organization that are causing the
climate crisis—among numerous other catastrophes—climate-change literature
often focuses on how global warming is endangering the culprit, and agonizes
over what technological means can save it from impending tipping points. The significance of
human-driven extinction can never be overstated, because it means not only the
death of species but the end of their evolutionary destinies as well—of the
life-forms they would or might have eventually originated. Present-day extinction
is not about species blinking out sporadically; it is a global and escalating
spasm of en masse losses that, the geological record reveals, is an infrequent
event in Earth’s natural history. The whittling down of ecological complexity
has been a global trend proceeding from the conversion of ecosystems for
intensive human uses, the aforementioned population depletions, and the
invasion of non-native species. Non-native species are the generalists hitching
rides in the bustle of globalization—from the climate-change-favored fungus
that is killing frogs, to millions of domestic cats preying on birds, to
innumerable more.26 Human-facilitated invasions, coupled with the disappearance
of natives, lead to places losing the constellation of life-forms that once uniquely
constituted them. The inevitable outcome of extinction, plummeting populations,
lost and simplified ecosystems, and a bio-homogenized world is not only the
global demolition of wild nature, but also the halting of speciation of much
complex life. The conditions for the birth of new species within a wide band of
life, especially of large-bodied species that reproduce slowly, are being
suspended. But this civilization is not
beyond the reaches of radical action—and it is certainly not beyond the reaches
of radical critique. If the price of “thinking in terms of alternatives to the
dominant order is to risk exclusion from polite intellectual society,” as
social theorist Joel Kovel observes about our times, then let us pay the price
while preserving our clarity about the unredeemable socioeconomic reality in
which we live.
posted by Gordon @ 08:22
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